Bonds Have Been Awful. It’s a Good Time to Buy. (2024)

FAQs

Is now a bad time to buy bonds? ›

Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.

In 2022, as inflation surged to a four-decade high, the Fed raised the federal-funds rate at an unprecedented pace, and bond volatility leaped higher. Those wild price swings continued in 2023, as investor expectations for Fed rate hikes and cuts swung back and forth.

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

Some Bonds Can Be Called Early

It's a risk because you'll no longer have a reliable income stream from the bond. Often, this happens when interest rates fall. Although lower rates might increase your bond's value, the issuer isn't buying the bond from you—it's simply paying off the debt early.

That combination of relatively high yields, reasonable prices, and an expanding opportunity set may not offer the sizzle of a high-flying stock market but that may be exactly the reason to consider adding bonds to your portfolio in the months ahead. Stocks have shown so far this year that they can move upward quickly.

As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.

Because bond funds do not have a defined maturity date, and the investor chooses when to purchase and when to sell, as prices fluctuate due to interest rate changes and other factors, it is possible that an investor may receive less principal back than initially invested.

Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.

In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.) Schwab's 10-year return expectations are well below each asset class' returns from 1970 through October 2023.

Holding bonds vs. trading bonds

However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.

Should I buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.

Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.

Low returns: Bonds typically offer lower returns than stocks. This is because bonds are considered to be a safer investment, and investors demand a lower return for safety.

Bond prices decline when interest rates rise, when the issuer experiences a negative credit event, or as market liquidity dries up. Inflation can also erode the returns on bonds, as well as taxes or regulatory changes.

Your money is at risk because there's a chance that the issuer won't be able to make repayments. Bonds tend to pay a fixed interest rate, although some returns are linked to a benchmark such as an index. The returns are potentially higher but you'll need to deposit your money over a longer period.

If you buy I bonds now, you'll receive 5.27% annual interest for six months and the new May rate for the following six months. He suggests buying a few days before April 30. Enna expects the fixed rate will be 1.2% or 1.3% in May, based on the half-year average of real yields for 5- and 10-year TIPS.

The answer is both yes and no, depending on why you're investing. Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market.

In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)