The next pandemic could be caused by something we haven’t even discovered yet – but this hypothetical disease has already sparked a firestorm on social media.
World Health Organisation (WHO) boss Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned civilisation is unprepared for ‘Disease X’ – a term coined by the UN agency in 2018 to describe the unknown, hypothetical pathogen that could cause the next pandemic.
Because it’s more of a thought experiment than an actual illness, nothing is certain about it: we don’t know what symptoms it would have, how fast it would spread, or even what type of pathogen would cause it.
But according to some experts, Disease X could result in 20 times more fatalities than the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s on the WHO’s shortlist of priority diseases, alongside viruses like SARS, Ebola and Zika.
There are an estimated 1.67 million unidentified viruses worldwide – and more than 800,000 of these unknown viruses could potentially infect humans.
What is Disease X?
Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, principal investigator at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, tells Metro.co.uk that Disease X is one of several future pandemic threats that scientists are working to understand.
Scientists believe Disease X could be caused by a zoonotic virus – a virus that jumps from animals to humans.
And Professor Dame Gilbert says the unknown pathogen could likely be ‘something we haven’t yet discovered’.
John-Arne Røttingen, a Norwegian scientist and special advisor to the WHO, adds that zoonotic viruses represent ‘probably the greatest risk’ to global public health.
Some scientists think climate change could increase the risk of zoonotic transmission. Warming climates could create the perfect conditions for mosquito-borne viruses to spread, and the destruction of habitats means that humans and animals may come into closer contact.
The WHO believes Disease X is likely to emerge in tropical, low or middle-income countries – especially those already impacted by climate change.
In 2018, the WHO updated its list of priority diseases that could cause future pandemics. A new version of the list is expected later this year.
The WHO’s priority diseases
- Covid-19: Responsible for the last global pandemic, Covid-19 is spread by a variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
- Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: There was a recent case of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, which is spread by ticks, in the New Forest in Hampshire.
- Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease: There are five strains of Ebola, as well as Marburg, which is a strikingly similar virus. Ebola kills about 50% of those infected.
- Lassa fever: Lassa fever is less deadly than other viruses on the WHO list, and 80% of those infected have no symptoms. However, the disease can be severe for those who do experience symptoms.
- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS): SARS is thought to have originated in bats, while MERS is transmitted to humans from camels. Both are variants of coronavirus.
- Nipah and henipaviral diseases: Nipah spreads to humans from animals such as pigs and bats. The first recorded outbreak was in Malaysia.
- Rift Valley fever: The virus, which can be spread by mosquitos, currently primarily impacts animals, especially livestock.
- Zika: Transmitted by mosquitos, there was a major outbreak of Zika in Brazil in 2015.
- Disease X: An unknown, hypothetical disease.
Are we prepared for Disease X?
Professor Dame Gilbert says the Pandemic Sciences Institute is working to understand ‘more about how viruses emerge, developing vaccines and treatments, analysing data and surveillance of infectious diseases and researching the policy and ethical factors around pandemic response’.
In August, a team of more than 200 scientists began work at a new state-of-the-art vaccine research lab in Wiltshire.
The Vaccine Development and Evaluation Centre will look at ways to respond to future pandemics more quickly.
It took 362 days to develop the Covid-19 vaccine. But the Vaccine Development and Evaluation Centre team wants to reduce that time to 100 days.
Scientists at the facility will develop a range of prototype vaccines and tests.
The new lab is a part of a global effort to respond to global health threats. The UK and other G7 countries signed up to the ‘100 Days Mission’ in 2021.
The government has invested £65 million into the lab.
Professor Dame Jenny Harries, the head of the UK Health Security Agency, said the new facility would ‘ensure that we prepare so that if we have a new Disease X, a new pathogen, we have as much of that work in advance as possible’.
Up Next
What is the World Economic Forum?
The World Economic Forum is a global organisation that supports links between the public and private sector.
Every year, it holds an annual meeting in Davos in the Swiss Alps. World leaders, top CEOs and influential academics are invited to attend.
This year, attendees discussed a host of subjects, from artificial intelligence to climate change.
Global health was also high on the agenda, with leaders from AstraZeneca and the WHO speaking at a panel on ‘Preparing for Disease X’.
Why has there been a right-wing backlash to Disease X?
Right-wing social media commentators have been critical of Disease X.
Much of the backlash to the term has come from far-right groups who also opposed Covid-19 lockdowns and vaccinations.
Monica Crowley, a former Republican politician and Fox News contributor, tweeted that Disease X would be a new way for ‘unelected globalists’ to ‘destroy more freedoms’.
Several social media claims about Disease X bear striking similarities to misinformation that spread at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Prominent conspiracy theorist and podcast host Alex Jones claimed in a recent video that Disease X is ‘laboratory-made’ and part of a plan by the UN, the World Economic Forum and Bill Gates.
Far-right commentators have frequently slammed the World Economic Forum, with many spreading conspiracies about the purpose of the Davos meeting.
In 2020, the theme of the World Economic Forum was ‘The Great Reset’ – a term now used by online groups to refer to a conspiracy theory that a secret elite plan to take away personal freedoms and impose authoritarian rule.
Conspiracy theorists believe that political and business leaders meet at Davos to enact these plans.
The ‘Great Reset’ claims have been debunked by fact-checking organisation Full Fact.
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