Why do stocks outperform bonds?
Stocks have historically delivered higher returns than bonds because there is a greater risk that, if the company fails, all of the stockholders' investment will be lost (unlike bondholders who might recoup fully or partially the principal of their lending).
When you buy bonds, you're lending money, either to companies or to governments. Because creditors are paid before owners, it's riskier to own a company than it is to lend money, so the prices of stocks are more sensitive to changes in the economy.
Stocks generally outperform bonds over time due to the equity risk premium that investors enjoy over bonds. This is an amount that investors of stocks demand in return for taking on the additional risk associated with stocks.
Stocks offer an opportunity for higher long-term returns compared with bonds but come with greater risk. Bonds are generally more stable than stocks but have provided lower long-term returns. By owning a mix of different investments, you're diversifying your portfolio.
The obvious answer is that stocks are riskier than bonds, and investors are risk averse and thus demand a higher return when they buy stocks.
Given the numerous reasons a company's business can decline, stocks are typically riskier than bonds. However, with that higher risk can come higher returns. The market's average annual return is about 10%, not accounting for inflation.
Issuing shares of stock grants proportional ownership in the firm to investors in exchange for money. That is another popular way for corporations to raise money. From a corporate perspective, perhaps the most attractive feature of stock issuance is that the money does not need to be repaid.
In every recession since 1950, bonds have delivered higher returns than stocks and cash. That's partly because the Federal Reserve and other central banks have often cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating economic activity during a recession.
Bonds are often touted as less risky than stocks—and for the most part, they are—but that does not mean you cannot lose money owning bonds. Bond prices decline when interest rates rise, when the issuer experiences a negative credit event, or as market liquidity dries up.
Historically, bonds have generated stronger risk-adjusted returns compared to stocks in the three years following Federal Reserve tightening cycles. After the past seven tightening cycles, bonds delivered 89% of the return of stocks with only 26% of the volatility with more consistency in their range of outcomes.
What is the downside to bonds?
Credit risk is a disadvantage of corporate bonds. If the issuer goes out of business, the investor may never get the promised interest payments or even get their principal back.
Stocks are much more variable (or volatile) because they depend on the performance of the company. Thus, they are much riskier than bonds. When you buy a stock, it is hard to estimate what return you will receive over time (if any). Nonetheless, the greater the risk, the greater the return.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
During a bear market environment, bonds are typically viewed as safe investments. That's because when stock prices fall, bond prices tend to rise. When a bear market goes hand in hand with a recession, it's typical to see bond prices increasing and yields falling just before the recession reaches its deepest point.
The rule of thumb advisors have traditionally urged investors to use, in terms of the percentage of stocks an investor should have in their portfolio; this equation suggests, for example, that a 30-year-old would hold 70% in stocks and 30% in bonds, while a 60-year-old would have 40% in stocks and 60% in bonds.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
- Defensive sector stocks and funds.
- Dividend-paying large-cap stocks.
- Government bonds and top-rated corporate bonds.
- Treasury bonds.
- Gold.
- Real estate.
- Cash and cash equivalents.
The phrase means that having liquid funds available can be vital because of the flexibility it provides during a crisis. While cash investments -- such as a money market fund, savings account, or bank CD -- don't often yield much, having cash on hand can be invaluable in times of financial uncertainty.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Are bonds a good investment in 2024?
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
The bond market is a wide field, with many different categories of assets. In general, you can expect a return of between 4% and 5% if you invest in this market, but it will range based on what you purchase and how long you hold those assets.
The historical returns for bonds is between 4% – 6% since 1926. Both asset classes have performed well over time.
For most of the past 20 years stock prices and bond prices tended to move in opposite directions. This made buying 10-year Treasury bonds a good hedge for investors seeking to protect their portfolio from declining stock prices.
Rising interest rates directly caused stock and bond prices to fall in 2022. Interest rates affect a company's capital and earnings in many ways, says Damian Pardo, a certified financial planner and city commissioner in Miami, Florida.
