How do rates affect bond performance? (2024)

FAQs

How do rates affect bond performance? ›

Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.

Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.

Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.

Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.

Changes in Interest Rates, Inflation, and Credit Ratings

Meanwhile, falling interest rates cause bond yields to fall, thereby increasing a bond's price. Credit risk also contributes to a bond's price.

Key Takeaways

Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.

Holding bonds vs. trading bonds

However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.

After weighing your timeline, tolerance to risk and goals, you'll likely know whether CDs or bonds are right for you. CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.

Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.

Is there a downside to buying bonds? ›

Yields Might Not Keep Up With Inflation

Bondholders also need to consider inflation risk—the risk that rising prices will decrease the value of the fixed income you receive from the bond.

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

Key Takeaways

Bond rates are lower over time than the general return of the stock market. Individual stocks may outperform bonds by a significant margin, but they are also at a much higher risk of loss. Bonds will always be less volatile on average than stocks because more is known and certain about their income flow.

As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.

There are two ways to make money on bonds: through interest payments and selling a bond for more than you paid. With most bonds, you'll get regular interest payments while you hold the bond. Most bonds have a fixed interest rate. Or, a fee you get to lend it.…

In general, though, a savings bond is sold as a zero-coupon bond at a discount, and will reach its full value at its maturity. Therefore, savings bonds mature to their full face value.

They may become less attractive to investors than other asset classes in low-interest-rate environments. Bonds typically have lower yields, but the returns are more consistent and reliable over a number of years than stocks, making them appealing to some investors.

When rates go up, bond prices typically go down, and when interest rates decline, bond prices typically rise. This is a fundamental principle of bond investing, which leaves investors exposed to interest rate risk—the risk that an investment's value will fluctuate due to changes in interest rates.

Using a bond's duration to gauge interest rate risk

For example, if rates were to rise 1%, a bond or bond fund with a 5-year average duration would likely lose approximately 5% of its value.