The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (2024)

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The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (1)The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (2)The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (3)The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (4)

Two regional US banks, California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York’s Signature Bank, have collapsed under the weight of heavy losses on their bond portfolios and a massive run on deposits. They are the largest banks to fail in the US since Washington Mutual in 2008 (Washington Mutual had about US$309bn in assets at the time of its collapse, compared with SVB’s US$209bn).

Why does it matter?

For now, we do not expect the collapse of SVB and Signature to spread to the broader banking sector. For one, regulators moved swiftly to shore up market confidence and prevent more bank runs by providing additional liquidity in exchange for eligible assets. In an unusual move, the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Treasury Department committed to ensuring that all depositors in the two banks would regain access to their funds (which was restored on March 13th), even those not covered by the government’s deposit insurance scheme. Any losses suffered by the deposit insurance fund will be recovered through a special levy on other banks, rather than through taxpayer funds.

Although rising interest rates will weigh on the financial sector broadly, the two banks’ collapse was partially due to their unique positions. SVB was heavily exposed to risky technology start-ups and had an unusually large portfolio of bonds, making it vulnerable to the sharp rise in interest rates. Similarly, Signature had connections with the cryptocurrency sector, which has been roiled by uncertainty since the failure of the FTX exchange last November. Furthermore, the vast majority of deposits at both banks were above the US$250,000 limit for federal deposit insurance, making them susceptible to withdrawal at the first hint of trouble. Nevertheless, higher interest rates will be a continuing source of financial risk in 2023‑24.

Last week Fed officials were considering a larger, 50-basis-point rate rise at their March meeting. The banks’ collapse and a subsequent sell-off in regional bank shares have eliminated this risk. There is now a chance that the Fed could choose not to raise interest rates at all in March. We expect the Fed to maintain its more modest pace, with a 25-basis-point increase, in response to still-strong economic data in January and February.

What next?

We continue to expect the Fed to make three more 25-basis-point rate increases, bringing its policy rate to a peak range of 5.25-5.5% in June. However, risks have quickly moved to the downside since last week. If investor sentiment weakens further, or if more regional banks start to struggle, which we do not expect, the Fed may keep rates on hold in March.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’sCountry Analysisservice. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.

Article tagsEconomyFinancial ServicesAmericasCountry Analysis

The collapse of two US banks raises the stakes for the Fed (2024)

FAQs

What are the two banks that collapsed in us? ›

Two regional US banks, California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York's Signature Bank, have collapsed under the weight of heavy losses on their bond portfolios and a massive run on deposits.

What were the reasons that half of the banks in the US failed at the beginning of the Great Depression? ›

Many smaller banks, such as this one in Haverhill, Iowa, lacked sufficient reserves to stay in business and became no more than convenient billboards. Many of the small banks had lent large portions of their assets for stock market speculation and were virtually put out of business overnight when the market crashed.

What happens when banks collapse? ›

In most cases, the FDIC will try to find another banking institution to acquire the failed bank. If that happens, customers' accounts will simply transfer over to the new bank. You will get information about the transition, and you will likely get new debit cards and checks (if applicable).

Which banks are going under? ›

List of Recent Failed Banks
Bank NameCityAcquiring Institution
Heartland Tri-State BankElkhartDream First Bank, N.A.
First Republic BankSan FranciscoJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
Signature BankNew YorkFlagstar Bank, N.A.
Silicon Valley BankSanta ClaraFirst–Citizens Bank & Trust Company
1 more row
Feb 29, 2024

What banks are failing in 2024? ›

2024 in Brief

There are no bank failures in 2024. See detailed descriptions below. For more bank failure information on a specific year, select a date from the drop down menu to the right or select a month within the graph.

What is the name of the 2 banks that failed? ›

Washington Mutual's failure in 2008, during the financial crisis, is the largest in the country's history. It stemmed from the bank's risky mortgage lending practices. Even more recently were the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in 2023.

How did the financial collapse of banks in the United States worsen the economic crisis? ›

He also describes how a declining money supply influences employment, inflation/deflation and economic output. "That is the monetary explanation for the Great Depression. Bank failures, bank runs cause a contraction of the money supply; causes a decline in spending, investing and GDP."

What caused banks to fail what was the result? ›

Understanding Bank Failures

The most common cause of bank failure is when the value of the bank's assets falls below the market value of the bank's liabilities, which are the bank's obligations to creditors and depositors. This might happen because the bank loses too much on its investments.

What event caused US banks to fail? ›

The Great Depression: Stock Market Crash of 1929

In addition, many companies were less than honest with their investors about their financials during the time leading into the crash. Later in 1930, the U.S. began experiencing bank runs due to this crisis, which led to a massive wave of bank failures.

Can banks seize your money if economy fails? ›

Banking regulation has changed over the last 100 years to provide more protection to consumers. You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.

Can the FDIC run out of money? ›

Still, the FDIC itself doesn't have unlimited money. If enough banks flounder at once, it could deplete the fund that backstops deposits. However, experts say even in that event, bank patrons shouldn't worry about losing their FDIC-insured money.

What will happen to the economy if banks collapse? ›

The fallout from a bank collapse can be widespread, hurting the bank's customers, employees, creditors, and even the entire economy. The bank and its shareholders are not the only stakeholders who suffer in a banking crisis. The bank's customers and account holders can be hit hard too.

Who is the number 1 bank in America? ›

Chase Bank

Which 4 banks are in trouble? ›

About the FDIC:
Bank NameBankCityCityClosing DateClosing
Heartland Tri-State BankElkhartJuly 28, 2023
First Republic BankSan FranciscoMay 1, 2023
Signature BankNew YorkMarch 12, 2023
Silicon Valley BankSanta ClaraMarch 10, 2023
55 more rows

Which banks are in danger of failing in the US? ›

7 Banks to Dump Now Before They Go Bust in 2023
SHFSSHF Holdings$0.50
CZFSCitizens Financial Services$82.69
HMSTHomeStreet$6.17
WALWestern Alliance$27.32
ECBKECB Bancorp$11.24
2 more rows
May 8, 2023

What are the two biggest banks in the US collapse? ›

List of largest bank failures in the United States
BankCityAssets at time of failure
Inflation-adjusted (2023)
Silicon Valley BankSanta Clara$209 billion
Signature BankNew York$118 billion
Continental Illinois National Bank and TrustChicago$117 billion
77 more rows

What are the three major banks in the US collapse? ›

In 2023, the US government and America's largest banks joined forces in a rare moment of comity. They were forced into action after Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed on March 10, 2023, quickly followed by two other lenders, First Republic and Signature Bank.

What is the second biggest bank collapse in the US? ›

SVB's collapse marked the second largest bank failure in U.S. history after Washington Mutual's in 2008. While bank failures aren't uncommon, it's rare to see banks of SVB's size become insolvent.

How many US banks have fallen? ›

There were 566 bank failures from 2001 through 2024. See Summary by Year below.

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