Disease X is referred to as a hypothetical pathogen or threat that can cause a major pandemic in future. The term coined by scientists and the World Health Organization could be any of the 25 families of viruses that have the capability to cause illness in people. Disease X was included in the WHO’s updated Blueprint list of diseases back in 2018. Scientists are of the opinion that Disease X could be 20 times more deadly than SARS-Covid virus that caused pandemic recently and it is imperative to carry out research and development about it to prevent millions of deaths worldwide. (Also read: Covid variant JN.1 spreading fast; preventive tips for children)
While Disease X is not a real threat right now, but there is possibility of it emerging in future and steps need to be taken to minimise deaths and devastation.
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Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of World Health Organization has warned nations to stay prepared for the possible threat. "There are things that are unknown that may happen, and anything happening is a matter of when, not if, so we need to have a placeholder for that, for the diseases we don't know," said Ghebreyesus.
WHAT IS DISEASE X?
Disease X is not a specific disease but is the name given to a potential novel infectious agent. It represents an illness which is currently unknown but could pose a serious microbial threat to humans in the future.
"Labelling this potential threat as 'Disease X' is meant to prioritise preparations for dealing with a disease that does not yet have vaccines or drug treatments, and could give rise to a severe epidemic," says Dr Tushar Tayal, Consultant, Internal Medicine, CK Birla Hospital, Gurugram.
"Exploring the concept of ‘Disease X’ is like getting into the mysterious and unpredictable realm of infectious diseases. Unlike lifestyle or genetic diseases that affect specific individuals or groups, infectious diseases, represented by Disease X, have the potential to impact global populations. Scientists use advanced models to predict the emergence and spread of such diseases, considering factors like origin, type, and transmission methods. Disease X serves as a hypothetical scenario, envisioning a future infectious disease that could affect the entire world. The focus is on its potential lethality, raising questions about how much more impactful it could be compared to known infections," says Dr. Pavithra Venkatagopalan, a microbiologist, coronavirus expert, and Covid Awareness Specialist, Rotary Club of Madras Next Gen.
DISEASE X: WHICH VIRUSES CAN TRIGGER NEW PANDEMIC?
"The coronaviruses, a large group of viruses, were long seen as a prime contender for producing a new pandemic, even before the Covid-19 outbreak. SARS and MERS are coronaviruses with potential for causing pandemics and their previous outbreaks were controlled with strict measures. However, SARS and MERS would have a harder time triggering a fresh pandemic because almost everyone in the world now has antibodies to the virus that causes Covid-19 and these seem to give partial protection against most other pathogens in the coronavirus family," adds Dr Tayal.
Dr Tayal feels that Flu viruses which have caused pandemics in the past - viruses such as Ebola and ZIKA also have pandemic potential.
"Disease X serves as a predictive model for potential future infectious diseases. Unlike lifestyle or genetic diseases that affect individuals based on internal factors or personal choices, infectious diseases pose a threat to large populations. These diseases, like diabetes or high blood pressure, are often linked to individual actions or genetic predispositions. In contrast, infectious diseases, which can be transmitted through air, water, or food, have the potential to impact a broad swath of the population. Unlike lifestyle diseases that may not affect everyone, infectious diseases can reach many people due to their connection to our basic needs for survival—air, water, and food. For instance, an infectious disease transmitted by a needle might only affect those at high risk, making it more of a lifestyle infectious disease. However, diseases like Covid -19 or influenza, such as the historic Spanish flu, spread easily because we all share the same air. Our social nature and close interactions contribute to the widespread impact of infectious diseases," says Dr Pavithra.
HOW COVID LESSONS CAN HELP US DEAL WITH DISEASE X
The learnings of Covid-19 pandemic can help us in dealing with future pandemics by Disease X if we stay alert and prepared.
"The novel vaccine designs, including ones that can be quickly repurposed to target new pathogens and vaccines based on mRNA have shown us the potential to formulate vaccines rapidly and effectively against new pathogens. Also there is need by government to empower and facilitate hospitals to expand their capacity if crises arises," says Dr Tayal.
WHY DISEASE X COULD BE 20 TIMES MORE LETHAL
"We can never eliminate infectious diseases from society, as viruses and bacteria constantly evolve to survive alongside us. The concept of 20 times more lethal emphasizes the potential magnitude of impact, whether in terms of the rate of spread or the number of people infected. With the world's population at its highest ever, the number of individuals could contribute to a higher lethality, even if the percentage of deaths remains relatively low. The human aspect is crucial, recognizing that every death, regardless of statistical percentages, has profound consequences for affected families and communities. The importance of prediction models lies in their ability to prepare societies for potential threats. As seen with Covid-19, accurate predictions can save lives by enabling better tracking, tracing, and response strategies. The ongoing efforts of individuals and organizations worldwide in tracking, tracing, and reporting infections contribute to a more informed and vigilant global response to emerging diseases," concludes Dr Pavithra.
News / Lifestyle / Health / Understanding Disease X: What is it and why scientists are worried about its spread?
