Mariners vs Royals Prediction: Surprising AL Outfits Clash (2024)

Two of Major League Baseball’s biggest surprises, the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals open a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium on Friday (8:10 p.m. ET). These teams also met last month in Seattle, with the Mariners taking two of three games.

• Seattle is -1.5 (+124) on the run line and -135 on the moneyline for the opener, with Kansas City +1.5 (-148) and +114. Meanwhile, the projected total is 9.
• The Mariners are also slight -115 favorites to win the series, compared to -105 for the Royals.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the odds to help bettors make their Mariners vs Royals predictions.

Mariners vs Royals Betting Trends

The Kansas City Royals have distinguished themselves as the most profitable team against the run line, covering in a Major League-best 60.3% of their games. They’ve been a much bigger liability for bettors against the Over/Under, with a mark of 27-34-2.

The Seattle Mariners, meanwhile, are 31-33 against the run line. That includes just 3-5 over their last eight games. As for the Over/Under, Seattle has gone Under the total a Major League-leading 62.3% of the time.

That’s important to remember when making your Mariners vs Royals predictions.

Pitching Prowess

Seattle has been among baseball’s biggest overachievers, soaring to the top of the MLB American League West with a 36-28 start. The Mariners have won nine of their last 11 games to open a 5.0-game lead over the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.

The Mariners kicked off their six-game road trip by taking two of three from Oakland, outscoring the lowly Athletics 8-5. They have allowed only 19 runs over the last 10 games per MLB scores, an average of 1.9. Their record against the Over/Under during that span is 2-8, bringing their season total to 23-38-3.

• Seattle is now a -210 favorite to win the West, overtaking preseason favorites Houston (+370) and Texas (+400). It has also seen its odds of winning the AL pennant (+600) and World Series (+1300) climb to new high watermarks. Only five clubs entered the weekend as bigger MLB World Series favorites.

While Seattle’s modest run differential (plus-10) may offer room for skepticism, there’s no doubting the club’s strengths. The Mariners’ rotation is among baseball’s best. It ranks first with 39 quality starts. It is also tied for fourth with six shutouts and owns a 3.37 ERA.

Projected for 87.5 wins, the Seattle Mariners will beat expectations if they remain on their current pace. Even if they struggle over the next few months, the Mariners’ pitching — headlined by right-handers Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby — is good enough to help them avoid prolonged slumps.

Another series 🔱in! #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/k6cyPOc8Y3

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) June 6, 2024

Crushing Expectations

The Royals have hit the skids of late, losing seven of their last 10 games to fall 4.0 games behind Cleveland Guardians atop the MLB AL Central. Despite that, Kansas City is still well ahead of expectations at 37-26.

• Projected for just 74.5 wins, Kansas City has already climbed to -155 to make the playoffs.

The Royals have done most of their damage at home, posting an AL-best 22-10 record. They’d won seven straight at Kauffman Stadium before dropping a three-game series to the San Diego Padres last week.

Kansas City’s surprisingly fast start has been a boon for bettors, who have watched the Royals go 38-25 against the run line. Although they’ve covered just once in their last five games, they continue to lead the Major Leagues with a 60.5% cover rate. That’s important to remember in our Royals review.

• Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (11 HR, .931 OPS, 19 SB) and catcher Salvador Perez (10 HR, .890 OPS) have keyed the club’s resurgence, with the former separating himself as a +340 contender for AL MVP. Only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (+180) and Juan Soto (+235) have better odds. The Royals rank sixth in baseball in runs scored (306).

Series Probables

There’s certainly been no sophom*ore slump for Miller, who owns a 3.18 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through a dozen starts. He threw six shutout innings in his last start, a 9-0 victory over the Los Angeles Angels last Saturday while striking out nine.

The Royals will counter with Lynch IV, who has allowed three runs (two earned) over 12 innings since returning May 5 from Triple-A Omaha. The left-hander is replacing Brady Singer (illness) in the rotation.

Keep that in mind when making your Mariners vs Royals predictions.

Castillo continues to headline Seattle’s rotation, turning in a 2.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 81 strikeouts. The three-time All-Star has put himself among the AL Cy Young favorites (+1200), pitching at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. He threw seven shutout innings against the Angels in his last start, a 5-1 win on Sunday.

He will face Marsh, who owns a 3.76 ERA but has allowed 10 runs over his last 12 innings. He faced the Mariners on May 15, holding them to two runs (one run) in a 4-2 loss.

Kirby threw seven shutout innings against Kansas City on May 13, allowing just three hits while striking out six in a 6-2 win. Though his ERA has climbed to 4.05, he remains among Seattle’s most formidable arms. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is a career-best 10.6.

Ragans, meanwhile, has a 3.21 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP and ranks sixth in the Major Leagues with 89 strikeouts. The left-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts. He is fifth on the AL Cy Young odds board at +1300.

For Mariners vs Royals predictions, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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