D'backs vs Padres Series Preview (2024)

The San Diego Padres, riding a four-game losing streak, open a seven-game homestand Thursday (9:40 p.m. ET) against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. San Diego took two of three from its MLB National League West rivals last month in Arizona.

• San Diego is +1.5 (-198) on the run line and -122 on the moneyline for the opener, with Arizona -1.5 (+164) and +102. Meanwhile, the projected total is 8.5 with a slight edge to the Under at -118 odds.
• The Padres are also -140 favorites to win the series, compared to +120 for the Diamondbacks.

Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both clubs in our D’Backs vs Padres series preview.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Betting Trends

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-35 against the run line, including just 4-8 over their last 12 games. As for the Over/Under, Arizona is 28-32-2.

The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, are 33-32. That includes 5-5 over the last 10 games. They have a similar 32-32-1 mark against the Over/Under.

That’s important to remember when analyzing the odds in our D’Backs vs Padres series preview.

Hitting a Lower Bar

Arizona has struggled to match the expectations that came with last year’s MLB National League championship. The Diamondbacks are just 29-33, sitting 8.5 games behind the NL West-leading Dodgers.

Undoubtedly, injuries are partially to blame for the club’s underperformance. Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly both remain on the injured list with shoulder injuries, crippling a rotation that was supposed to be among the league’s best.

Jordan Montgomery was signed late in spring training to mask those woes. However, the left-hander has struggled to round into form. Notably, he was booed off the Chase Field mound in Wednesday’s 9-3 loss to San Francisco, during which he allowed six runs in two innings. Consequently, his ERA is an unsightly 6.41 after nine starts.

The loss snapped a four-game win streak and dropped the Diamondbacks to 4-6 over their last 10 games. That matches their record against the run line over that span.

Projected for 84.5 wins, the Diamondbacks have an uphill battle to finish above .500. At the same time, they stand to benefit from the expanded wild card.

• They’re just one hot streak from turning around their fortunes, as evidenced by their +170 playoff odds. The Diamondbacks are also +2200 to return to the World Series, one of six clubs with better than 25/1 odds.

Seven-day, seven-game stretch begins tonight at @PetcoPark ⤵️

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 6, 2024

San Diego hasn’t had much luck with injuries either. Yu Darvish (groin strain) and Joe Musgrove (elbow) were placed on the 15-day IL on Saturday, forcing the Padres to reconfigure their rotation amidst a slower-than-expected start.

Losers of four straight and five of their last seven, the Padres are 32-33. That leaves them 7.0 games behind Los Angeles in the NL West.

A sub-.500 record in June certainly isn’t what the club had in mind after investing in a top-15 payroll. Projected for 83.5 wins, the Padres have dropped to +140 to make the playoffs.

Fortunately, like San Francisco, the Padres could play their way into the postseason thanks to the expanded wild card. Health is the main obstacle, with third baseman Manny Machado now injured in addition to Darvish and Musgrove.

The six-time All-Star, who is hitting just .249 with six homers and a .688 OPS, exited Wednesday’s 3-2 loss the Angels with a mild right hip flexor strain. Manager Mike Shildt called day-to-day, saying there’s a chance he could play in Thursday’s series opener.

The Padres were swept in the three-game set, with Los Angeles outscoring them 9-5. They have managed only eight runs over the last five games, during which they’re 1-3 against the run line. Despite that, they remain the MLB league leaders in team batting average (.258).

• San Diego is now +2500 to win the NL and +5000 to win the World Series.

Series Probables

Cecconi has been hit hard. His ERA is 5.59, and he’s allowed nine home runs in just 37 innings per Padres statistics. He faced the Padres on May 3, allowing six runs over 4.1 innings in a 7-1 loss.

Vasquez hasn’t fared much better, his ERA sitting at 5.74 ERA after six starts.

Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing the odds in our D’Backs vs Padres series preview.

Pfaadt allowed a season-high 10 hits and five runs (three earned) in a 13-1 loss to San Diego on May 4. He’s mostly done well besides that, pitching to a 4.32 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

King, meanwhile, owns a 3.82 ERA and ranks 13th in baseball with 78 strikeouts. Furthermore, he threw six shutout innings when opposing Pfaadt earlier this season.

Nelson’s ERA is 5.44, though he’s fared better over his last three starts (six runs in 18.2 innings). He went a season-high 7.2 frames in Monday’s 4-2 win over San Francisco, allowing only two runs.

The Padres will counter with a knuckleballer in Waldron, who has a 3.98 ERA.He has given up two runs or fewer in five consecutive starts since May 11. However, he struggled against Arizona (eight runs in three innings) last month.

Walston, a 22-year-old southpaw, has a 2.84 ERA over his first three Major League appearances. He debuted in relief on May 1 against the Dodgers, giving up two runs in 3.2 innings. MLB Pipeline ranks him Arizona’s 25th-best prospect.

Mazur, meanwhile, will be making just his second Major League start. The No. 5 prospect in San Diego’s system per MLB Pipeline, Mazur allowed one run over six innings in Tuesday’s 4-2 loss to the Angels. The 23-year-old right-hander was replacing Darvish in the rotation.

For MLB predictions today, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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